“Inside narrative identification”, with Žymantas Budrys.

Abstract: Narrative identification reads the historical record to separate policy changes that respond to the economy from those made for other reasons. That reading is labor-intensive, open to interpretation, and hard for others to check or repeat. We study whether large language models can help collect and evaluate narrative evidence in a transparent and reproducible way, and whether this can open up records not used so far for narrative shock identification.

“The sectoral origins of post-pandemic inflation” [link].
Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2025-37, Dec. 2025. Previously circulated as “The sectoral origins of current inflation”.

Abstract: This paper quantifies the contribution of sector-specific supply and demand shocks to personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation. It derives identification restrictions that are consistent with a large class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with production networks. It then imposes these restrictions in structural factor augmented vector autoregressive models with sectoral data on PCE inflation and consumption growth. The identification scheme allows the study to remain agnostic on theoretical modeling assumptions yet still gain structural empirical results: sectoral shocks cannot explain the initial inflation increases that followed the COVID-19 pandemic. This changed from the end of 2021 onward when shocks originating in non-services sectors became a major source of the post-pandemic inflation surge.

“Implications of the decline in the natural rate of interest for monetary policy strategies: a semi-structural approach”, with Claus Brand.
Background paper for the work stream on the price stability objective of the European Central Bank’s Strategy Review, Aug. 2020.

Abstract: We simulate the risk of policy interest rates being constrained by their effective lower bound (ELB) within a small, semi-structural, backward-looking model for the US and euro area. Counterfactual analysis of monetary policy rules suggests superior performance of Taylor-type rules compared to average inflation targeting or price-level targeting rules in terms of both output and inflation variability as well as lower-bound incidences. Choices about the level of the inflation objective are crucial in mitigating risks of monetary policy ineffectiveness. A reduction in the inflation objective from 2% to 0% incurs striking increases in ELB risks, even when allowing for easing through unconventional policies. Analogously, stipulating a 2% inflation objective and a decline in the natural rate of interest from 2% to 0%, we estimate this risk to at least double for Taylor-type rules. We show that unconventional policies can sustain the effectiveness of monetary policy for estimates of a deeper, permanent decline in the natural rate but without being able to safeguard the effectiveness of monetary policy at all times.

“Identifying sectoral shocks and their role in business cycles” [pdf], [link], with Ferre De Graeve.
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 140, November 2023.

Abstract: US business cycles can be empirically characterized as a time-varying mix of different sectoral shocks. Sectoral shocks are distinct from aggregate shocks and better capture business cycle fluctuations. A typical recession (or boom) is interpreted as the combination of a few sectoral shocks, which encompass more diverse origins than the typical narrative prevalent for that recession. Sectoral shocks have aggregate consequences through strong input-output network effects. Identification is based on network-implied heterogeneity restrictions in a FAVAR framework and far less dependent on specific DSGE calibrations compared to previous work.

Replication files: Sectoral shocks series: link, Replication codes: link, Estimation results: link

“Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2026 update” [link], with Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Eugene Trostin, Argyn Toktamyssov and Hannes Twieling.
Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Paper 2026-21, May 2026.

“Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update” [link], with Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong and Ingomar Krohn.
Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note 2025-16, Jun. 2025.

“The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges” [pdf].
European Central Bank, ECB Occasional Paper No. 269, Sep. 2021.